Hey Cazza, last night you asked me a question about my NFL computer system in another thread.
It is a system I have worked on for the past decade. It takes into account any information I feel is helpful in determining the outcome of a game. It include opening line and line movements, injuries, expected weather conditions for the game, past point spread histories between the teams, road/home records, fav/dog records, divisional records, in conference/out of conference, coaching history, what they have done the week before and after in previous years. It takes into account this years statistics: yardage, points for and against, defensive statistics, special teams, I even try and determine garbage yardage given up when the game is all but over. (Early in the season I focus upon the previous year's numbers more.) I do focus strongly on the starting qb's too.
Each year I add and subtract pieces to the formula to try and make it better. I use as much statistical and technical angle information as I can for the base so my thoughts do not cloud the results. I only weight my own handicapping and thoughts as 7.5% of the formula. I also add in information from three consensus sites to get a feel for what other think.
That is a broad overview, probably close to what a lot of people on the Forum do. I will say this, it has been a great thing for me. I used to bang my head against the wall every Sunday losing more than winning. And now, with the discipline to play only the top plays I rather enjoy most of the NFL. It was hard at first because it spits out a lot of games that go against public opinion - last week Atlanta, Arizona and Miami. Week two had New Engalnd and Cincinnati. You cannot be afraid to play ugly games.
I rate games by a percentage rating. I usually play anything over a 72% rating. Why 72%, because for some reason the games drop off and are not consistent below that point. Don't know why they just are not.
This year I have had five plays and they are 4-1.
My three year record in the NFL for games rated above 72% is 59-39-3 or 60.2%.
If I move to only playing the games 75% and higher the record is 42-21-3 or 66.7%.
And the games rated 77% or higher are 33-14-3 or 70.2%.
For some reason the system caps out around 77%. I do not get many plays over that, and when I do they fair only at about 50%.
The strongest plays seem to be when I get a favorite such as Miami the other night.
Anyway, I will post them if you would like, as I did last weekend. I just get nervous about jinxing it.
Best of luck.
It is a system I have worked on for the past decade. It takes into account any information I feel is helpful in determining the outcome of a game. It include opening line and line movements, injuries, expected weather conditions for the game, past point spread histories between the teams, road/home records, fav/dog records, divisional records, in conference/out of conference, coaching history, what they have done the week before and after in previous years. It takes into account this years statistics: yardage, points for and against, defensive statistics, special teams, I even try and determine garbage yardage given up when the game is all but over. (Early in the season I focus upon the previous year's numbers more.) I do focus strongly on the starting qb's too.
Each year I add and subtract pieces to the formula to try and make it better. I use as much statistical and technical angle information as I can for the base so my thoughts do not cloud the results. I only weight my own handicapping and thoughts as 7.5% of the formula. I also add in information from three consensus sites to get a feel for what other think.
That is a broad overview, probably close to what a lot of people on the Forum do. I will say this, it has been a great thing for me. I used to bang my head against the wall every Sunday losing more than winning. And now, with the discipline to play only the top plays I rather enjoy most of the NFL. It was hard at first because it spits out a lot of games that go against public opinion - last week Atlanta, Arizona and Miami. Week two had New Engalnd and Cincinnati. You cannot be afraid to play ugly games.
I rate games by a percentage rating. I usually play anything over a 72% rating. Why 72%, because for some reason the games drop off and are not consistent below that point. Don't know why they just are not.
This year I have had five plays and they are 4-1.
My three year record in the NFL for games rated above 72% is 59-39-3 or 60.2%.
If I move to only playing the games 75% and higher the record is 42-21-3 or 66.7%.
And the games rated 77% or higher are 33-14-3 or 70.2%.
For some reason the system caps out around 77%. I do not get many plays over that, and when I do they fair only at about 50%.
The strongest plays seem to be when I get a favorite such as Miami the other night.
Anyway, I will post them if you would like, as I did last weekend. I just get nervous about jinxing it.
Best of luck.
